New Zealand Emigration Soars, Attitudes Sour

Continuing a multi-year decline, Statistics NZ —the public service department of the New Zealand Government charged with the collection of national statistics— published a net migration rate of 13,700 individuals in the Jan-Jun 2025 period, a growth rate of just 0.7%, far below the recent 2023 peak of 108,400 individuals, or a growth rate of 2.3%. In the months since, no rebound has been noted, with a further decline to only 12,400 net migrants through September 2025. Furthermore, as migration constitutes 85% of New Zealand’s noted population growth, a continuing slump threatens to upend the previously robust growth rate of the New Zealand labor force.

New Zealand, a former British settler colony belonging to a group of historically linked states known as the “Anglosphere” (The US, UK, CA, AU, and NZ), has for decades grappled with an economy far less competitive than its closely related neighbor, Australia. Kiwis —the colloquial term for New Zealanders— earn an average weekly wage of ~$900 USD, compared to ~$1200 USD in Australia. Compounding this noticeable difference in earnings is a cost-of-living that likewise favors Australians, who pay less on average for utilities and groceries, with the median house price in Australia also being lower than across the Tasman. New Zealand, emerging sluggishly from a recession in 2024, has recorded noticeably lower economic growth than Australia, a nation known for its financial resilience. Before the economic shock evoked by the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic, Australia had notably avoided the 2008/09 downturn, having not suffered a recession since the early 1990s. It is no surprise then that native New Zealanders are emigrating in droves, leaving new migrants, typically from developing countries, to fill the void.

Estimated net migration, by selected citizenship, year ended August 2019, 2024, and 2025. (Photo Credit: Stats NZ)

International migration estimates (provisional). (Photo Credit: Stats NZ)

From Jan-Aug 2025, 73,900 New Zealand citizens left the country, an all-time record. Of these emigrants, 58% chose to move to Australia, a decision made far more convenient through the automatic residency rights granted to NZ citizens by the Australian government. The result is a net migration loss of 30,000 people from New Zealand to Australia in 2024, individuals unlikely to return. The number of New Zealanders leaving for Australia has outweighed those from Australia departing for New Zealand since the 1970s. After 50 years of consistent outbound migration, it is now estimated by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade that approximately 670,000 New Zealanders, totaling ~15% of the entire population of NZ, live in Australia.

Alarming about the outbound trends is the demographic profile of those departing New Zealand. Emigration traditionally skews towards the youth, who are more mobile and less risk-averse to pursuing foreign career opportunities and differing living standards. Those 20-29 are still the largest single group emigrating, but they are now closely followed by individuals 30-39 as well as their children, a painful loss for a country with a sub-replacement fertility rate of only 1.6 births per woman. Retirees, who can continue receiving pensions abroad, are likewise departing en masse, choosing to forego the high living costs and temperate weather of New Zealand for cheaper and warmer destinations such as Queensland, the “Sunshine State” of Australia, a moniker shared with Florida in the US. Both states are known for their attractive qualities for retirees, boasting year-round warm weather and cheaper living costs compared to their respective national averages.

The influx of Kiwis has been a boon for Australia, filling gaps in critical economic sectors such as healthcare and the mining industry. The lower unemployment rate in Australia of 4.3% vs 5.3% in New Zealand is only one part of the story. Labor underutilization, a measure of unemployment including those who are working fewer hours than they wish, is likewise lower in Australia. New Zealand, as a much smaller economy, also creates far fewer jobs, leaving many to depart out of necessity. Consequently, NZ Employment figures have declined by 0.9% since 2024, while Australia’s have grown by 2.3%.

Average wage growth in Australia far outstrips New Zealand, totaling 3% vs 2%. This is not merely a result of higher inflation in Australia, as the average inflation rate of ~2.5% sits below wage growth, meaning Australian households are wealthier in real terms, whereas New Zealand’s average inflation of ~2% renders households as affluent as they were a year prior.

Wage Growth. (Photo Credits: ABS, Macrobond, Stats NZ, Westpac)

Relative unemployment rates currently in Australia’s favor. (Photo Credits: Stats NZ, ABS)

Greater opportunities across the Tasman are likewise pulling in non-citizen migrants from New Zealand. While the NZ population is still growing owing to a high amount of foreign nationals arriving, the outbound migration of those same nationals has increased by 17% since 2024, reflecting a crisis of confidence in the opportunities available in New Zealand. Employment confidence has fallen to its lowest level since the Pandemic, with concerns about job security likewise rising. As a result, according to the latest Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index, 24% of respondents expect job security to worsen in the coming months, compared with just 20% who expect improvement. General pessimism abounds in the labor market, with these sorts of perceptions oftentimes serving as stronger motivators to emigrate than the real statistics underpinning economic realities. Depressed job conditions have been reflected through weaker hiring and less investment spending.

Business Conditions. (Photo Credits: NAB, NZIER)

New Zealand net migration to Australia. (Photo Credits: IFM Investors, ABS, Stats NZ)

Migration trends have not affected New Zealand evenly. While large cities such as Auckland have continued to see growth that outpaces the national average, smaller towns, such as Gisborne, a regional center of New Zealand’s wine country and production location of the eponymously named Gisborne Gold Lager, one of the most popular craft beers in New Zealand, have witnessed population declines over the last year. These trends further fuel a worldwide trend of rural areas and small towns being neglected economically as large cities become the principal drivers of economic and demographic growth.

There is cause for optimism, however. New Zealand, which raised rates far more sharply than regional peers in order to prioritize inflation reduction over GDP increases, stands to expect strong growth in the latter part of the 2020s as the central bank eases interest rates. Statistics such as the unemployment rate, while negative, are not worsening, whereas certain economic indicators, such as the amount of hours worked by households, have seen modest increases, reflecting expectations by large Oceanian financial institutions such as Westpac that the Kiwi economy is on the cusp of a rebound as opposed to destined for further decline. Given the strong correlation between economic prosperity and population growth, an uptick in investment would do much to stem fears of the nation being hollowed out to the benefit of larger economies, notably Australia. Furthermore, much of the demographic pessimism related to the sharp difference between the 2023 and 2025 growth rates may be labeled as alarmist, given 2023 was an exceptionally high growth year, the fastest since the 1950s, as New Zealanders flocked back to a country that had shut them out through onerous travel restrictions and border closures in response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. A 0.7% population growth rate, while far lower than previous years, is in line with the average growth in G7 countries.

Nevertheless, the New Zealand government is planning to introduce additional visa pathways for skilled and experienced migrants starting in 2026, aiming to fix labor market gaps exacerbated by emigration by NZ citizens. This comes on the heels of previous policy loosening in early 2025, allowing remote employees to work in New Zealand while on tourist visas, a measure meant to attract “digital nomads”, as well as lowering the requirements for investor visas, slashing residency requirements to attain permanent status from three years to three weeks, an attractive offer for those with millions of dollars to invest in the local economy.

Ultimately, it is difficult to predict the future course of New Zealand. Whether on the cusp of rejuvenation or ruin, the trends influencing further growth, emigration, or stagnation remain far from certain.

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