The Coup in Madagascar: a Prospect for Democracy or a Threat of a Military Regime?

Madagascar is a distinctive travel destination that offers exotic beaches, unique wildlife, and a rich variety of landscapes. You may be captivated by Tsingy de Bemaraha National Park, the Avenue of the Baobabs, Nosy Be, and Andasibe–Mantadia National Park. Despite its rich cultural heritage, breathtaking natural landscapes and its abundance in natural resources, it is not widely considered an idyllic place to live. The touristic sector remains undeveloped, and poor roads, limited electricity access, and unreliable transportation systems hinder trade and industrial growth. Moreover, recurrent political instability has deterred foreign capital investments and constrained long-term economic growth, and these are only some of the challenges that Madagascar continues to face. According to the newest World Bank report released in October 2025, over 70% of workers earn below the poverty line, and more than two‑thirds of Madagascans are still in extreme poverty . The country remains one of the poorest countries in the world, facing severe corruption as well as chronic water and energy shortages - including in its capital, Antananarivo.

Although water scarcity and lack of electricity have been persistent issues, the crisis became particularly acute in September of this year, culminating in Madagascar’s participation in the newest wave of strikes by the international “Gen Z” organization. Following in the footsteps of countries such as Kenya, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Nepal, youth-led “Gen Z” uprising demanded a fundamentally improved future of their nation. 

“Gen Z” is a leaderless group of youth that mobilised transnationally since the early 2010s, opposing inequality, low standard of living, democratic deficits and endemic corruption, although the causes differ and are directly related to the situation of the country in which the demonstrations are taking place. Their main form of opposition is their activity on their social media, on which they, for example, organise their protest and aim to raise political awareness.

Man holding a sign saying “The supporters of power have the right to manifest without getting bombed but the others don’t? This is the democracy in Madagascar?” (Photo Credits: Mada Zava Mahaliana, Facebook.com)

The strikes organized by the Gen Z Madagascar organization broke out on the 25 of September and continued until 18 of October. According to a UN report, just in the initial days of the demonstrations, 22 people were killed, both due to the actions taken by security forces and because of looting and general disorder in the capital. However, the credibility of this figure is disputed, as government sources report only 12 deaths. 

On the 29, the President of Madagascar, Andry Nirina Rajoelina, attempting to stop the protests, dissolved the government and dismissed his Prime Minister, Christian Ntsay, replacing him with Ruphin Zafisambo, who is now known as the shortest-serving prime minister in Madagascar’s history, with his term only lasting 36 days. That manoeuvre, however, did not succeed in halting the strikes and on the 8th of October protestants rejected the presidential call for dialogue and talk and demanded his immediate and unconditional resignation. 

The President's situation deteriorated significantly when on the 11th of October an elite military unit CAPSAT which is short for Corps d'administration des personnels et des services administratifs et techniques - ironically the same force that helped President Rajoelina take power in 2009, now commanded by Colonel Michael Randrianirina, who refused to comply with presidential orders to suppress the strikes by using tear gas and rubber bullets against the protesting youth who instead sided instead with the demonstrators. The unit's commander publicly appealed to the President, calling for his resignation. 

The President fled the country sometime between 11 and 12 October, using French military aircraft.  French President Emmanuel Macron in a recent interview publicly supported the protestors' cause and expressed deep understanding regarding the need to improve the quality of life. However, he opposed to the CAPSAT’s involvement in the uprising and expressed serious concern regarding the preservation of Madagascar's constitutional order. On the 12th of October CAPSAT asserted authority and declared its charge over all armed forces. 

The following day, Rajoelina gave a speech on social media, asserting he is still the leader and calling for the constitution to be respected, which was unsurprisingly ineffective. The next day, the President issued a decree dissolving the parliament in order to prevent his  impeachment, but the National Assembly ignored it and still voted to impeach him for “abandonment of post”. Just minutes after that, Colonel Randrianirina officially announced that the military withholds power announcing the military council that is supposed to be in charge of Madagascar for at least 18 months before the upcoming elections.

 On the 17 of October Colonel Michael Randrianirina was sworn in as the new interim president by the High Constitutional Court. During his speech, he stated that: “Today marks a historic turning-point for our country. With a people in full fervour, driven by the desire for change... we joyfully open a new chapter in the life of our nation,”. 

These events have not gone without reverberations on the international stage. “The Secretary-General condemns the unconstitutional change of government in Madagascar and calls for the return to constitutional order and the rule of law,” said the UN Spokesperson, Stéphane Dujarric, reassuring the availability of the potential help the UN could provide in stabilising the current situation. The African Union went as far as to suspend Madagascar because of its concern over such a swift change of power in Madagascar. On the contrary, the “Gen Z” organization on their social media platforms argues that the change of government was not illegal or unconstitutional and objects to the international response, calling it a coup d'état.

Marchers protesting planned deportations block major freeway in Los Angeles (Photo Credits: (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)(AP))

The new president named businessman Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo as his prime minister. The “Gen Z” organization loudly opposes and states that the choice was made without consultation and is unconstitutional. The organisation also opposes the reappointment of the ministers who were previously in Rajoelina’s government, and states that all the national institutions should be dissolved immediately.  

Madagascar faces a historic challenge and above all, a social one. Paradoxically, the coup may lead to an increase in political culture and the development of democracy, yet the risk of a military dictatorship remains very high. The government now has a chance to free itself from the exploitative economy pursued by previous leaders, or to fall into an even more profound financial crisis. But as of today, the talks between the vigilant “Gen Z” representatives and the newly forming government are pending.

The coup of Madagascar is a clear example of the growing political culture amongst young people, which can not only be seen in the “Gen Z” movement but also other political movements, like “Fridays for Future” or “World Youth Alliance" that are spreading all over the world. It highlights the fact that such movements can in fact be successful and lead to real changes.