Venezuelan Crisis and Its Diplomatic Relations with The US, Are There Possible Prospects for a Brighter Future Between the Two?

Venezuelan troops mobilise in response to rising tensions with the United States. (Photo Credit: 2019, Anadolu Agency)

The continuous threats from the US government have placed Venezuela under a position of vulnerability. With tensions growing higher by the minute, it’s seemingly impossible to predict following events that may occur in the ongoing Venezuelan crisis. The current 'Operation Southern Spear' is subject to a potential new phase that the US president, Donald Trump, has alluded to beginning, which may include operations taking place beyond the sea. Among the proposals, they indicate possible overthrow of Nicolas Maduro, the current president of Venezuela. Such a proposal is being deeply considered, due to the implications of what the future holds if Maduro maintains his position. 

The U.S. government has been facing backlash for its most recent actions of striking down what they suspect to be drug-trafficking boats, killing at least 80 people, with little evidence to back these assumptions. This, including the deployment of the U.S military in the Caribbean, involving its largest and most modern aircraft carrier, Gerald Ford, F-35 fighter jets and 15,000 troops, has been part of what the U.S has dubbed as Operation Southern Spear, dedicated to combating drug-trafficking

U.S. Navy outlines new high-gain counter-UAS antenna requirements amid regional security escalation. (Photo Credit: C-UAS Hub 2024)

It comes with no surprise that Maduro's government suspects these accusations to be merely an excuse to further intervene and take down the illegitimate government. As for whether these drug allegations are true, different sources present differing stats that support their own claims. In the case of the allegations towards the boats being struck down, there is lacking data to support the claims. A report from 2020 by the US Drug Enforcement Administration confirms this by estimating that only 8% of cocaine exports abroad using go-fast vessels arrive from South America to the Caribbean islands. Other sources, like the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, state that cocaine seizures in Venezuela made up 2.3% of the global total in 2020, and dropped to 1.9% in 2019. On the other hand, an article from CNN published in 2019 titled ‘Corruption in Venezuela has created a cocaine superhighway to the US’, describes the events of drug-trafficking from Venezuela to the U.S, notably, an issue that has been around for a while. The article states the complicity of the Venezuelan government in the drug production and exportation from Colombia, and their position of being used as the route to transport the drugs. 

The U.S. has additionally imposed various sanctions against the Chavist regime, based on the claims that Maduro is the head of the Cartel of the Suns. This cartel refers to a collection of groups, without hierarchy, involving high-ranking officials and armed forces in Venezuela who work with drug trafficking while simultaneously getting economic gains through this collaboration. It’s a loose network within the army, navy, air force, to name a few, that operate as drug trafficking organizations. In the case of Maduro, the accusations claim that he had allegedly made concessions with criminal groups as an effort to keep his power, allowing them to control sectors and prisons, facilitating the transit and export of drugs, in exchange for their support towards his government and dominion. 

Supporters gather as Venezuela faces political uncertainty following Chávez’s final election. (Photo Credit: Ellsworth, B. 2013)

Maduro's response to these accusations? He claims them to be simply ‘imperial threats’ from the U.S.’s part, as well as accusing them of fabricating a new war. He asserts that the U.S. threat is the greatest the entire continent has faced in the past 100 years. His defence minister, Vladimir Padrino has announced that over 200,000 troops will be taking part in the new phase of its military deployment, and has also reported receiving Russian military aid, including missile and air defence systems. 

To truly understand the conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela, and how it escalated to the point of a very real and possible direct intervention, we have to run through the general history of the origin of this crisis. 

The moment Royal Dutch Shell geologists struck oil at La Rosa in 1922 was a turning point for Venezuela. In just a matter of years production of oil in the state increased from one million to 137 million barrels, and over one hundred foreign companies planted themselves within to produce oil. Business was booming. The 1940s saw another shift, with the Hydrocarbons Law requiring all foreign companies to provide 50% of their profits directly to the state, leading to a massive new source of income for the Government, making the state ultimately filthy rich. By the 1970s, Venezuela was the country with the highest per capita income in all of Latin America. Additionally, the Punto Fijo Pacto sought to ensure that oil profits would be concentrated in the state, and in 1976, President Carlos Perez nationalised the oil industry. However a new threat was to emerge towards the Petrostate, in the 1980s oil prices suddenly plummeted worldwide, and due to Venezuela's sole reliance and dependence on the exports of its oil to uphold its economy, the state's economy contracted, built up massive foreign debt from the purchase of foreign refineries, and the inflation rose. President Perez launched a failed plan of a financial bailout by the International Monetary Fund in 1989, which ended with mass riots and in the following years the rise of a new leader, Hugo Chavez.

The appeal of Chavez was that he was seen as a new alternative to the past, failed governments. He was a sudden hope for change in the State. In 1998 he swore to use oil wealth to reduce inequality and poverty, but due to many inefficient actions implemented, like the subsidization of oil to Cuba through the Petrocaribe alliance, or the mass firing of thousands of PDVSA workers leading to a lack in important technical expertise, the petroleum reserves dwindled and the government debt rose. His presidency paved the way for a new dictatorship to take place, with the arrival of Maduro to office. Maduro implemented power through measures of repression, censorship and electoral manipulation, like for example the 2018 elections, in which countries like the U.S. recognized Juan Guaido, the opposition, as Venezuela's interim leader.

Venezuelan citizens face worsening economic hardship amid inflation and rising poverty. (Photo Credit: The Dispatch, 2016)

More recent stats show the decaying state of Venezuela's economy, thanks to oil prices plunging from over 100 per barrel in 2014 to just under thirty in 2016. The GDP has greatly shrunken by three quarters between 2014 and 2021. Additionally, Venezuela has an estimated debt burden of 150 billion. There was a slight improvement in the economy during 2023, due to the fact that the U.S. permitted the oil giant Chevron to continue limited operations in Venezuela to improve the rising global energy prices in 2022 set off by the Russian-Ukraine war. The U.S. also eased sanctions on Venezuela's oil and gas sector, with the promise from Maduro’s part that there would be a guaranteed continuation of dialogue, however Maduro’s government failed to keep this promise and meet the conditions for a fair vote which ultimately led to a reimposition of the oil sanctions in 2024. 

These sanctions, undeniably making an impact on the Venezuelan crisis, are directed towards blocking oil imports from PDVSA and preventing the government from accessing the U.S. financial system. However, Venezuela has maintained oil trading relations and partners, primarily from China, Russia, Turkey, Cuba and Iran.

The tension between Maduro and Trump has notably risen, as of August the U.S. government published a fifty million dollar reward for information leading to the eventual arrest or conviction of Maduro, a fairly large price to pay for a wanted man accused of being the global terrorist leader of the Cartel de los Soles. 

As this is an ongoing conflict, with new events and news dropping in real time, it is difficult to predict the exact trajectory in which this crisis is heading towards. The truth of the matter, however, mostly lies in Maduro's government's hands. If, in the unlikely case, Maduro manages to offer concessions that align with that of the interest of the U.S., the latter might be willing to allow Chavismo to remain, at least for a little longer. For other sources, the regime will most likely continue its repression as an effort to keep its power. Venezuela’s situation is rather difficult, because if they respond with a counter attack towards the U.S., that will ultimately lead to an escalation, one the country cannot afford. If they don’t, it will promote the image of a weak state. Simply leaving his position from power is also a difficult prospect for Maduro, as a lack of guarantee of immunity could make him subject to imprisonment or extradition to the U.S.

His political opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, recent winner of the noble peace prize, claims that his governance is soon to come to an end, with a new era for Venezuela just around the corner. But it is likely that this end will be met with some degree of force. The hope is that any direct intervention would not end disastrously for the Venezuelan people. As social discontent rises towards the current government, however, not many oppose the idea of extreme resorts to overthrowing the regime. According to El Pais, 80% of Venezuela rejects their government, compared to twenty percent that supports it. The crisis in Venezuela has reached such a point that most civilians are indifferent to the external threats their government faces, and are more concerned about whether the economic situation will improve. The decrease of value of the bolivar has dropped by 80%, according to the International Monetary Fund. This has greatly affected food prices, a kilo of chicken, for example, now costs four times the monthly minimum wage. Most civilians are struggling to obtain even the basic necessities, leading to mass migration to look for better living conditions and opportunities. This mix of shortages of food, hyperinflation, and the collapse of public services, has worsened the quality of everyday civilian lives, with over twenty million Venezuelans dealing with poverty, mass health problems and 5.1 million civilians facing hunger.

  Civilians going through food (Photo Credit: United States Institute of Peace (2024))

We can only hope that diplomatic measures can be taken to avoid mass aggressions that could lead to a worsened situation. Through fair dialogue and concessions, the two states may be able to resolve the decades old conflict. However, as tensions grow higher and operations seem to be escalating, we can only sit back and hope that the end solution is the most beneficial to the Venezuelan civilians.

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