External Security or Internal Conflict: How the European SAFE Program Triggered a Political Storm in Poland

What is the “SAFE” program?

On the 11th of March, 2022, just two weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, European Union Member States signed the Versailles Declaration. The main aim of the document was to form a formal response to the attack on Ukraine by Russia. Apart from stating their support for Ukraine, member states also acknowledged the need to bolster Europe’s defence, as well as the need to make the industry more sovereign and independent.

These goals were followed by many individual member states as well as the EU as a whole. Since 2022, the EU has incorporated many new goals, ideas, and programs in regards to the Common Security and Defence Policy. One of the newest strategies published by the alliance on the 27th of May 2025 is the “SAFE” Program. 

SAFE, or Security Action for Europe, is a financial instrument recently proposed by the European Union as one of the efforts to make the EU’s defence stronger and more independent. Financed by EU borrowing, the program offers up to €150 billion in long-term, highly beneficial loans with a lending rate of 3.3%, which are provided not only to states but also to European defence businesses.

Source: Gazeta Prawna- "KE przekazała Polsce umowę SAFE. Ponad 43 mld euro na obronnośc"

Why is the program so crucial?

Based on the scientific publications by D. Fiott between 2007–2016, over 60% of the European defence budget was spent on non-EU military imports. This alarming statistic clearly shows the need to invest in European Union-owned defence businesses in order to autonomize their security structures. According to the program, 65% of the loans given have to be reserved for producers from the EU, Great Britain, Switzerland, or Norway, which would be a huge step towards making EU defence more sovereign. It is undebatable that now more than ever Europe is in desperate need of armaments. Since January 20, 2025, the start of Trump’s second term in office, that need has become even more apparent and vital. The fact that Trump aims to limit engagement in European defence has been long known. Not only is that his goal, but he would simply not be able to do so after involving America in yet another prolonged war in the Middle East.

Recent conflicts such as the Russo-Ukrainian war, ongoing since 2014, the US-Iraq war, the US-Afghanistan war, and now the war in Iran, which was planned to be a short military operation, prove that military conflicts in the 21st century are not and will not fall under the blitzkrieg category.

The growing threat posed by Russia’s imperialist policies and the decreasing support from the United States were the main causes behind the creation of this financial instrument. It is also important to note that the program was discussed, developed, and launched during the Polish Presidency of the Council of the European Union. The program was a major priority for the Polish presidency, and Poland remained a key driver behind it. The Polish government under Donald Tusk encouraged other Member States to recognize the urgency of strengthening security on the EU’s eastern flank. As a result, Poland became one of the primary beneficiaries of the program.

Donald Tusk and Ursula Von der Leyen, Source: "O czym Donald Tusk Rozmawiał z Ursulą Von der Leyen? Są doniesienia."

The Polish President Opposing the Program

There is an urgent demand for armaments, as well as for broader security instruments such as police and border control. These capabilities have been especially important for Poland in recent years, particularly during the Belarus–European Union border crisis.

Against this backdrop, President Karol Nawrocki’s refusal to sign the EU deal raises questions. Especially considering that other member states did not express reservations about the program. Moreover, most Polish citizens held a favourable view of SAFE.

To understand this decision, one needs to understand the specific nature of Polish politics as well as the main ideas of the “Prawo i Sprawiedliwość” party that the President is affiliated with. 

Poland is a very politically divided country. This division has become even more apparent over the last decade. Looking at the election results that have been previously condemned, one might notice that the country is almost directly split in half. The division within Polish society directly translates into the public support of the program. Support of SAFE is strictly linked to one’s political party. This may indicate a strong role of propaganda in the narration followed by the electorate. We can see this clearly when looking at the differences in narration in media outlets from both sides of the political spectrum. 

Polish Prime Miniter Donald Tusk, Source: Do Rzeczy- "Prof. Żaleśny: Czy SAFE jest zgodny z Konstytucją?"

In far-right Polish newspaper outlets such as “Do Rzeczy” or “Gazeta Polska”, one can read headlines like: “SAFE, meaning a dangerous loan”, “SAFE Program is transparent to Russians”, “The SAFE Program, how we are being sold a pig in a poke”. In contrast, liberal media outlets are filled with slogans like “The President is making more and more errors. The losing streak of Karol Nawrocki”, “The objection of Karol Nawrocki with regard to SAFE. Poland loses more than 7 billion złoty for security”. This indicates that the program, proposed by the European Union, despite being designed to guarantee safety and security, has become a populist dispute and yet another cause of division. This is a very common phenomenon in the Polish political sphere, when something that would not ordinarily be politicized becomes the object of nationwide debate. It is evident that all parties recognize the escalating threat, but the far-right appears to be indecisive in determining the source of that threat.

That is exactly why one might arrive at the conclusion that the decision, apart from being a populist move, may also have had a deeper cause. As mentioned previously, the loan is very beneficial, but it is also long-term. It would tie Poland to the European Union for up to 45 years. Even though the PiS party is currently in favor of remaining in the European Union, unlike other political parties from the far right which advocate the need to leave or at least renegotiate the terms of membership, it is not guaranteed that the party’s position will remain unchanged over the next 45 years. During the time that PiS had a parliamentary majority, that is, from 2015 until 2023, the party made efforts to push Poland further away from the Union. It should not come as a surprise, considering that one of the main ideologies promoted by Prawo i Sprawiedliwość  is Euroscepticism.

What will happen now? 

Even though the presidential veto sparked a lot of controversy in Poland, it did not come as a surprise to the public nor to the government. Therefore, it was widely announced that even if the president refused to sign, the loan would still be obtained. The planned “bypass” will be implemented by resolutions of the Council of Ministers, which are expected to grant Poland funding for defence through individual procurement contracts directly with the EU. That plan has a significant flaw, though, which is linked to the specific provisions of the “Security Action for Europe” framework. All individual procurement contracts must be signed before May 30, 2026, which does not leave Poland much time to secure the deals with the EU. The Polish President also proposed an alternative solution to the program, called “SAFE 0%,” but it is better understood as a political gesture rather than a viable policy proposal. The program proposes a 0% lending rate, which is economically unfeasible and unrealistic.

The first live-fire training conducted by the combet crews of Borsuk infrantry fighting vehicles from the 15th Giżycko Mechanized Brigade, Source: Defence24- "Mit 89 procent. Politycy mylą się co do SAFE."

It is high time for both voters and politicians from far-right groups to recognise that it is not the European Union, Germany, France, Ukraine, or any other ally of Poland that poses a threat to Polish sovereignty. The real, tangible threat to Poland originates from the east—namely, from Russia’s threats directed not only at Poland but also at the other Baltic states. Such divisions and decisions driven primarily by populist motives, which encourage societal fragmentation within Poland, only make the country increasingly vulnerable and defenceless in the face of potential danger. Only through international cooperation and collective defence can Europe preserve its independence and effectively confront the threats arising from the imperialist policies of the Russian Federation.

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