The Conflict Between Pakistan and Afghanistan - How Far Are We from Peace?

During the night of October eleventh to twelfth, clashes were reported between fighters of the Afghan Taliban regime and the armed forces of Pakistan. According to Taliban officials, fifty-eight Pakistani soldiers were killed, and thirty were wounded, while losing nine Taliban fighters. In addition, multiple army posts of the armed forces of Pakistan were captured. The Pakistanis, on the other hand, reported twenty-three soldiers killed on their own, while 200 were killed by the Taliban. Those clashes were the result of a long ongoing build-up of interstate tensions with a key actor in focus, the “Therik-i-Taliban” (TTP), the Pakistani Taliban. 

First of all, we need to know what the TTP is, what their ideology is, and most significantly, what their goals are, to understand why they are so important in the ongoing conflict. The TTP is the result of the illegal intervention in Afghanistan of NATO forces in 2001, and we have to distinguish between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban. After the beginning of the operation “Enduring Freedom”, the Taliban regime collapsed, and the remaining Taliban fighters retreated to Pakistan territories where they gained a foothold, established new training camps for new recruits and assassins, and reorganized themselves. The consequence was the recapture of Afghan territory in the East and South, ongoing since 2005. Here, a contradiction is visible; It is not a secret that Pakistan assisted the NATO forces in their military operation against the Taliban; however, it allowed Taliban forces to organize their resistance on Pakistani territory. Why Pakistan allowed the Taliban to operate from its own territory will be discussed later.

In 2007, the TTP was founded by multiple militant networks as some kind of opposition against the armed forces of Pakistan. Their main operational bases are located in Afghanistan and Pakistan, from where the TTP plans to achieve its goals; forcing the Pakistani military out of the region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan to establish a Sharia-based government and to turn all of Pakistan into a caliphate. Not to forget is the close connection to Al-Qaida in ideology and sheltering Al-Qaida operators. Known as a terror organization, the TTP is responsible for dozens, or most likely, hundreds of terror attacks since it was founded. US military bases like Chosin in 2009 were attacked. In this particular case, seven US citizens were killed, and in the time lapse from January until September 15, 2025, when 500 Pakistanis, both citizens and non-citizens, were killed in terror attacks caused by the TTP. Since the Taliban regained power after the withdrawal of NATO forces in August 2021, Afghanistan is a safe place for TTP members in terms of operating and planning, posing a huge threat to Pakistan. 

As mentioned earlier, the TTP wants to achieve regime change in Pakistan, but that is not the only reason for them being a danger from the Pakistani point of view. The Pakistani region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, bordering Afghanistan, takes a significant role in this conflict, as the TTP is very active here. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has two roles; first, it served as an operational base for the Taliban and TTP during the Afghanistan war against NATO. US drones heavily bombed Pakistan, killing not only insurgents, but also civilians. After NATO forces withdrew from Afghanistan, the region became a key element in fighting against the government in Islamabad, inflicting heavy casualties among the civilian population as well as among Pakistani security forces during counterterrorism operations. Let us take a look at the numbers. According to Dr. Syed Kaleem Imam, in 2024, 193 security forces were killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and thirty-five terrorist attacks took place in October 2024 alone. The Imam states that other factors are responsible for instability in that region, too. High poverty, low education, low healthcare, and corruption damaging trust in the authorities make it easy for the TTP to recruit new personnel. Measures taken by Pakistan are the deployment of military forces, fencing of the shared border with Afghanistan, and the introduction of de-radicalization programmes for former militants.

The destruction of the TTP is obviously essential for peace and stability in the region, which would bring peace and stability to Pakistan. However, the length of the Pakistan-Afghan border is a huge problem. It is almost impossible to secure 2,400km of a border, especially in an area with lots of mountains, making it easier for insurgents to cross the border. Focusing all forces on the western border can cause a threat to Pakistan by another global player in the East: India. India is most likely the main enemy of Pakistan, and the fact of both nations being nuclear powers adds a huge threat to worldwide peace. And since the Taliban regained power in Kabul, India sees a new option of countering its biggest opponent in the region by building up connections with Kabul. 

First of all, we need to consider that New Delhi officially does not recognize the Taliban regime as the legitimate government, but still maintains connections with Kabul in some directions. DW reports that on the ninth of October 2025, the foreign minister of Afghanistan visited India officially to have talks about trade, humanitarian aid, counterterrorism, and Afghanistan's diplomatic interaction with India. However, New Delhi and Kabul have maintained contact for a few years in terms of coordinating humanitarian aid in Afghanistan and diplomatic service with mutual visits and meetings by ministers like the ministers for foreign affairs of both nations (Muttaqi for Afghanistan and Jaishankar for India). 

To understand the goals of all participating nations, we need to take a quick look into the backstory of Kabul and Islamabad, all the way back to the creation of the so-called Durand Line in 1893, which was marked by the British to secure their colonies in Asia from Russia by drawing the Afghan territory directly between Russia and British India and remains the frontier until today. Since 1947, the year of the creation of Pakistan, Kabul has refused to accept its border.

Durand Line. (Photo Credit: Encyclopedia Britannica, 2025)

Next, there was the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Daniele Ganser, a Swiss historian and scientist for peace, describes in his book “Illegale Kriege: wie die NATO-Länder die UNO sabotieren: eine Chronik von Kuba bis Syrien”, how Pakistan helped the US to arm and train Islamic fundamentalists to fight against the Soviets. Among those fighters was the one who later became the most wanted terrorist on earth: Osama bin Laden. Pakistan’s purpose was obvious: to install a puppet regime to expand its influence. We can tell that Islamabad helped to create the monster it wanted to control itself, but it didn’t work out as we know today. Governments usually start to think in a nationalist way to become more self-reliant when their original purpose was to be a dominion, same with the Taliban after they gained power in 1996 and ruled until 2001. Islamabad shot itself a bullet into its own leg. After the NATO withdrawal, the Pakistanis hoped for sure to re-establish contact with Kabul; however, the argument for the Durand Line was still an obstacle to mutual peace. This may be the most likely reason why Kabul allows the TTP to operate from Afghan territory, which helps in logistics and planning. Kabul is most likely to create connections with India as it views Pakistan as a threat to its national security, and the TTP is a threat to Islamabad’s national security, especially since the number of terror attacks in Pakistan has grown after the Taliban's re-emergence. The perfect fuel for a rising conflict.

Terror attack on a mosque in Peshawar (Photo Credit: DW, n.d.)

Now we can already see multiple goals of the main parties: For Kabu, it is national independence from Islamabad, legitimizing its government, and gaining the attention of third parties, especially India but also China, which I will refer back to a bit later. The Pakistani’s goals are the destruction of the TTP, which would be essential for domestic stability and security, as I already mentioned earlier, forcing the Taliban to fight against the TTP on their own and to gain strength against India. We have to look at Islamabad’s position in that particular region. In the West is Afghanistan, with its 2,400km long border being difficult to control, in the East is India, located within the critical region of Kashmir, with both nations having disputes about who the region actually belongs to. Pakistan fights an asymmetric war in Kashmir using terrorists and insurgents to fight, as it would never be capable of winning a direct confrontation with India due to its smaller military, economy, and population.

Saudi Arabia, however, is probably Pakistan’s closest ally. Both countries signed an agreement in 2025, which outlined mutual defense in case of an attack on either. Torsten Heinrich, a German historian, states that this agreement is a loss for the US and Israel. Jerusalem and Riyadh sought to normalize their relations, but this process between the two US allies was stopped after the war in Gaza began. Heinrich highlights that in the case of a war against Israel, Riad can rely on their ally Pakistan to fight against Jerusalem, and the same for Pakistan if a war against India should break out, as Riad can support Islamabad with loans and cheap oil. 

When we talk about the interests of third parties, we should include India, China, and the U.S.  After August 2021, the US lost a lot of influence in South Asia. In 2025, Donald Trump tried to convince Kabul to use the Afghan air base of Bagr, but Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China refused. Trump's purpose was to limit China’s influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

China’s interests are more economic. With China keeping its embassy in Kabul open and calling the relationship with Islamabad an “Iron Brotherhood”, Beijing promotes close economic connections with Kabul and Islamabad, which would help China to establish new trading routes through both countries. As a result, China would force the US out of most parts of South Asia.

China’s proposed new silk roads (Photo Credit: Council on Foreign Relations, 2020)

For India, the disputes at the Afghan-Pakistani border are essentially to keep Pakistan occupied at the Durand Line. Kashmir is a critical region in India with both sides seeking control over it. Here, an asymmetric war takes place with dozens of terror attacks killing dozens of victims. According to Torsten Heinrich, India also tries to secure commodities in Afghanistan for its growing chip and military industry.

The way Pakistan tried to remove the TTP made way for the clashes at the border. DW reported that in 2024, the Pakistani air force bombed regions in Eastern Afghanistan, officially targeting areas where terrorist groups were supposed to be located. The Taliban answered with artillery fire. This year, two explosions in Kabul were reported on October ninth. Authorities in Pakistan claimed the strike’s aim was to eliminate Noor Wali Meshud, head of the TTP. One day later, a terror attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa took place, with twenty-three dead and the TTP taking responsibility for it. In addition, Islamabad accuses New Delhi of supporting the TTP to promote instability within Pakistan, and India accuses Pakistan of strengthening terror in Kashmir. As a result, brutal clashes broke out between Afghanistan and Pakistan on October eleventh.

Civilians are heavily suffering, especially Afghan civilians living in Pakistan for generations. Rafat Saeed, a Pakistani journalist, stated that ninety-five percent of Afghans living in Pakistan are already deported to their country of origin. The deportation can be used as an instrument to destabilize Afghanistan with an immense crisis of lack of shelter for hundreds of thousands. 

Both parties, however, tried to negotiate with each other. After the bloody clashes, multiple news websites like NTV and Al Jazeera agreed to a ceasefire to stop the killing in Doha with the help of Turkey and Qatar. A mechanism to establish a lasting peace was also part of the negotiation. A second round of negotiations was planned in Istanbul to create a specific shape for that. Unfortunately, the second round of negotiations failed, but both parties agreed to keep up the ceasefire. Before the second meeting, the minister for defense of Pakistan threatened Kabul with a full-scale war if the peace talks failed. Luckily, a new outbreak of clashes didn’t happen after the failed attempt to establish a mechanism for peace.

Representatives of Qatar, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Turkey at the ceasefire conference. (Photo Credit: DW, n.d.)

To achieve full stability and security in the area, multiple obstacles must be overcome. First of all, the disarmament and abolishment of the TTP and the judgment of its leadership in front of the ICC. If this terror organization had no space to act, Pakistan would have no reason to start military activities against its neighbour in the West. A lack of will is obviously present on the Taliban side, one of the reasons for the border clashes. Security and, most of all, legitimization of the regime in the Afghan capital should be the main interest of the Taliban. Not only international legitimization but also on a domestic level, which can be achieved by preventing future Pakistani air campaigns to provide security to their people. Another obstacle would be the acceptance of the Durand Line as the interstate border between Kabul. For now, it is unclear if the regime will acknowledge the line at all. Kashmir is and will stay the main destabilizer for Pakistani and Indian security, especially regarding any future terrorist attacks caused by terror organizations operating in Kashmir and all of India, like the LeT, which was responsible for the horrific attacks in Mumbai in 2008. Such terror attacks contributed to the clashes between the armed forces of India and Pakistan this year. New Delhi is already preparing for more possible violence by ordering new Rafael-fighter jets. If we want to calculate how the conflict will progress in the future, it is safe to say that as long as the TTP exists, there will always be a threat of new acts of aggression. The intensity will most likely stay on the same level because the Taliban can’t risk losing a full-scale war and Pakistan does not want to risk another fight against India which it would definitely lose, and India would never risk a full-scale attack with all its forces against its neighbour in the West due to the danger of the use of nuclear weapons.

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