The Peace Process Between Armenia and Azerbaijan After the Second Karabakh War

Figure 1: Map of the Caucasus region (Photo Credit:Redirecting, 2005)

The Caucasus region is an area that is situated at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. While Turkey and Russia both hold a presence in the region, the label of Caucasus countries is usually attributed to three states: Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. These nations are known for their great history, culture, cuisine, nature, and hospitality. 

However, during the past few decades, like many other parts of the world, this region has also been a centre of attention and political discourse because of conflict and war. While Georgia has had its own share of armed conflicts and even a full-scale war with Russia in 2008 over its two breakaway regions, Armenia and Azerbaijan have suffered two full-scale wars with each other over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. 

Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been a topic of dispute between the two nations, is an area situated in the South Caucasus. While internationally being recognized as part of Azerbaijan, the vast majority of its population is Armenian. For Armenians, the region is known as “Artsakh”.  

During the Soviet times, Karabakh had the status of an autonomous republic of the Azerbaijani SSR. However, after the fall of the Soviet Union, the region became a battlefield between the two newly independent countries of the South Caucasus. 

The First Nagorno-Karabakh war, which was waged from 1988 to 1994, was won by Armenia and the Self-declared “Republic of Artsakh”. The region gained de facto independence and unification with Armenia. Apart from the territory of Karabakh itself, Armenian forces occupied seven border regions of the area controlled by Azerbaijan. This devastating war had left thousands killed, missing, and injured, and displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides. 

Figure 2: Border of Armenia-Azerbaijan (including Nagorno-Karabakh) (Photo Credit: “Nagorno-Karabakh”, 2025)

After the first war, the status quo had remained unchanged for almost three decades, until late 2020, when another full-scale conflict broke out over the region between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the outcome of the war was different this time. With its reformed and re-equipped army, Azerbaijan was able to overrun Armenian forces and reestablish control over most of the formerly lost territories. 

Soon after the Russian brokered ceasefire ceased all hostilities and the sounds of tanks, planes, and bullets were replaced with quiet. According to this treaty, Azerbaijan regained jurisdiction over the seven bordering regions of Karabakh. Russian peacekeepers were deployed in the “Lachin Corridor”, which became the only route of communication and access between the territory of Armenia and the “Republic of Artsakh”. While the self-declared “Republic of Artsakh” continued its existence for a short while, it was clear to everyone that the region, together with its Armenian population, was at the mercy of Azerbaijani forces. 

On the nineteenth and twentieth of September, Azerbaijan launched another military operation in Karabakh, which finally forced the Separatist republic to capitulate and dismantle itself by January 1, 2025. This was followed by a mass exodus of Armenian refugees from Karabakh. 

During this time, both Russia and the European Union attempted to mediate a peace agreement between the two countries. The EU played an increasingly important role: the Brussels format was considered one of the main avenues of peacebuilding. Under the mediation of the European Union in May 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan made a joint longer-term negotiation plan. While they were busy with their own military conflicts, the Russians still tried not to let their influence on the peace process slip from their hands. The Kremlin continued to see itself as a central mediator. The meeting of the working group under the deputy prime ministers (Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan), meeting in Moscow in May-June 2023, attempted to prepare the unblocking of transport routes. However, it became clear that, especially after the Azerbaijani military operation inside Karabakh itself, the role of official Moscow and the Kremlin’s peacekeepers in the region was diminished beyond repair.

Meeting between the President of Azerbaijan (Ilham Aliyev) and Premier-Minister of Armenia (Nikol Pashinyan) in Tirana, Albania. 15 May, 2025. (Photo Credit: Barseghyan, 2025)

While at first, the United States of America played more of a complementary role in the EU’s peace efforts, Americans also started to engage actively in the peace efforts, for example, by hosting meetings in Washington as early as May 2023. Any form of involvement by Washington was quickly challenged by the Russian Federation, which argued that its own trilateral agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan remained the legal basis for peace efforts.

The 2023 Azerbaijani military operation and capitulation of the “Republic of Artsakh”, as well as the ceasefire that followed, was a major turning point: it ended large-scale combat and dismantled Separatist military forces, but it did not yet resolve the deeper political, legal, and territorial disputes.

The final recapture of Karabakh by Azerbaijan and the following ceasefire by both sides made signing a full-fledged peace treaty finally possible.

The Americans played the most important role in this objective. By March 13, 2025, both sides announced they had agreed on the text of a peace treaty. According to the Armenian MFA, negotiations had resolved the last two outstanding articles. However, the Azerbaijani side put forward two conditions: 1) The amendment to the Armenian constitution to remove any territorial claims against Azerbaijan; 2) Dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, the long-standing (though largely dormant) mediation body. These conditions were sensitive: changing Armenia’s constitution is a major internal political move, and even if the Armenian government were to agree, the implementation of the decision would be questionable from their side since the country is preparing for a major parliamentary election during the summer of 2026.

On August 8, 2025, in a trilateral meeting at the White House, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed the peace agreement, together with U.S. President Donald Trump. They also issued a Joint Declaration reaffirming continued action toward the signing and ratification of a full treaty.

Signing of the peace agreement in the White House by Armenian Premier-Minister Nikol Pashynian, President of Azerbaijan: Ilham Aliyev, and President of the United States of America: Donald Trump. (Photo Credit: The White House, 2025)

The agreement consists of seventeen points, including: mutual recognition of borders by the two countries and recognition of territorial integrity of each other, commitment to not make any territorial claims on the neighbouring state, and each state pledges to refrain from using or threatening to use force against the other. It is important to state that one of the most important parts of the peace agreement is the transit corridor (“Trump Route”): A major piece: a transport corridor (road/rail) through Armenian territory, linking Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, with the U.S. having exclusive development rights for ninety-nine years.

The peace deal was welcomed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the European Union, Turkey, Georgia, and, surprisingly, even by Russia, while Iran chose a more cautious position, questioning foreign influence, mainly the U.S., near its borders. 

It is understandable to both sides that the deal marks a foundation for peace, not its final full realisation. However, great progress can already be clearly observed. 

For example, for the first time in thirty years, a grain shipment from Kazakhstan crossed Azerbaijani territory into Georgia to eventually reach Armenia. Railway links between the two countries have finally been unblocked, which paves the way for the restoration of transport and communication routes and eventual peace between the two states. 

The next step for both sides is the ratification and final implementation of the treaty, which has its own challenges, including both domestic and geopolitical realities. Whether or not Yerevan and Baku can finally achieve just, permanent and acceptable peace only time will tell. However, one reality is transparent; both countries, as well as the entirety of the Caucasus region, still have formidable challenges ahead. 

Bibliography

admin-apnews (2025) 'Peace agreement aims to end 35-Year Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict,' APnews, 13 October. https://www.apnews.org/peace-agreement-aims-to-end-35-year-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict/. 

Afp (2025) 'Russia says ‘No alternative’ to its Karabakh mediation after U.S. initiative,' The Moscow Times, 2 December. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/02/russia-says-no-alternative-to-its-karabakh-mediation-after-us-initiative-a81008. 

Arka.Am (no date) Peace will not be fully established, 'even if we sign the peace treaty' with Azerbaijan - Armenian Foreign Minister.  https://arka.am/en/news/politics/peace-will-not-be-fully-established-even-if-we-sign-the-peace-treaty-with-azerbaijan-armenian-foreig/. 

Associated Press (2023) 'Azerbaijan announces an ‘Anti-Terrorist operation’ targeting Armenian positions in Nagorno-Karabakh,' Voice of America, 19 September. https://www.voanews.com/a/azerbaijan-says-six-of-its-citizens-were-killed-by-land-mines-in-karabakh-/7274324.html. 

Barseghyan, A. (2025) 'Pashinyan and Aliyev meet in Albania amidst ongoing tensions,' OC Media, 19 May. https://oc-media.org/pashinyan-and-aliyev-meet-in-albania-amidst-ongoing-tensions/. 

Council of the European Union (2025) ‘Armenia-Azerbaijan: Statement by the High Representative on behalf of the European Union on the initialling of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty’, Press release, 08 August. Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/08/08/armeniaazerbaijan-statement-by-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of-the-european-union-on-the-initialling-of-the-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-treaty/pdf

European Parliament (2023) Briefing: Armenia–Azerbaijan – implications of the 2025 peace treaty. Luxembourg: European Parliamentary Research Service. Available at: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2023/747919/EPRS_BRI%282023%29747919_EN.pdf

File:Caucasus countries.png - Wikimedia Commons (no date). https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Caucasus_countries.png. 

Górecki, W. (2023) Competing peace formats. Russia and the EU’s attitudes towards the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-06-07/competing-peace-formats-russia-and-eus-attitudes-towards-armenian. 

Górecki, W. (2025) The Washington Declaration: moving closer to peace in the South Caucasus. https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-08-12/washington-declaration-moving-closer-to-peace-south-caucasus. 

Jazeera, A. (2023) 'Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces reach Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire deal,' Al Jazeera, 20 September. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/20/azerbaijan-and-ethnic-armenian-forces-reach-nagorno-karabakh-ceasefire-deal. 

“Nagorno-Karabakh” (2025) Britannica, viewed 2 December 2025, https://www.britannica.com/place/Nagorno-Karabakh

Publication of the initialed Agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan (2025). https://www.mfa.am/en/press-releases/2025/08/11/Initialed%20Arm-Az%20Peace%20Agreement%20text/13394. 

Redirecting (2005). https://www.google.com/url?q=https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Caucasus_countries.png&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1764709806859496&usg=AOvVaw1doxMOpGZp8PkFLtuq0sBP. 

Reporter, G.S. (2025) 'Azerbaijan and Armenia sign peace deal at White House that creates a ‘Trump Route’ in region,' The Guardian, 9 August.  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/09/azerbaijan-and-armenia-sign-peace-deal-at-white-house-that-creates-a-trump-route-in-region. 

Reuters (2025) ‘Turkey welcomes strategic transit corridor after Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal’, Reuters, 9 August. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-welcomes-strategic-transit-corridor-after-azerbaijan-armenia-peace-deal-2025-08-09/

Technical difficulties (2025). https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2025JointDeclaration.AzerbaijanArmenia.pdf. 

The White House (2025) President Donald Trump signs a trilateral joint declaration with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia – The White House. https://www.whitehouse.gov/gallery/president-donald-trump-signs-a-trilateral-joint-declaration-with-president-ilham-aliyev-of-azerbaijan-and-prime-minister-nikol-pashinyan-of-armenia/. 

Times of India (2025) ‘Russia welcomes Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, hopes for stability in Caucasus’, Times of India, 9 August. Available at: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/deserves-a-positive-assessment-russia-welcomes-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-hopes-for-stability-in-caucasus/articleshow/123207553.cms

TOI World Desk (2025) '‘Deserves a positive assessment’: Russia welcomes Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal; hopes for stability in Caucasus,' The Times of India, 9 August. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/deserves-a-positive-assessment-russia-welcomes-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-deal-hopes-for-stability-in-caucasus/articleshow/123207553.cms.